This is Alert Advisory Number 12... The alert status is now RED (CATEGORY I). Gusts in Hong Kong, which are caused by tropical cyclone, have reached 63 km/h. Severe Typhoon MEGI 鮎魚 (1013/15W) continues to move slowly northward over the South China Sea... approach Dongsha Dao and Guangdong... MEGI has maintained its strength over the past 6 hours. MEGI's organization has slightly improved. The system has become more symmetric. Convection has built over the northeastern quadrant, making the "eyewall" complete. Microwave products suggest that MEGI has a big irregular eye. Due to the presence of excellent upper level outflow, MEGI is forecast to intensify in the coming 12 to 24 hours. MEGI may regain Super Typhoon strength. About 24 hours later, stronger shear and land interaction should start to weaken the system. A ridge has developed to the southeast of MEGI, as JGSM and NHM predicted. As a result, MEGI has gained a little longitude over the past 12 hours. The major ridge to the east of MEGI is expected to push MEGI to the north in the coming 24 hours. Around 36 hours later, the sub-tropical ridge may strengthen and drive MEGI to the northwest into southern China. Landfall on eastern Guangdong or southern Fujian can be expected on Saturday. Numerical models generally agree on a track towards Shantou, however the time of landfall is uncertain. GFS and CMC are among the eastern cluster which put MEGI over the Taiwan Strait or even Taiwan Island. It is funny to note that UKM, JGSM and TEPS predict a southwestward movement early next week, possibly due to the arrival of northeast monsoon. Our latest forecast track is based on the consensus of ECMWF, NHM and JGSM results, with emphasis on the JGSM solution. MEGI will continue to approach eastern Guangdong. We will continue to monitor its development. ===== Position and strength at 03:00 UTC / 11:00 HKT ===== Position at 19.6N 117.5E (458 km SE of Hong Kong; 143 km SE of Dongsha Dao 東沙島, Taiwan), based on IR imageries, Maximum sustained winds near centre 175 km/h gusting 250 km/h (95G135KT), Minimum SLP 940 hPa, T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS (21/0230Z), OW eye surrounded by LG ring. PT 6.0. DBO MET.
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ReplyDeleteThis is Alert Advisory Number 12...
ReplyDeleteThe alert status is now RED (CATEGORY I). Gusts in Hong Kong, which are caused by tropical cyclone, have reached 63 km/h.
Severe Typhoon MEGI 鮎魚 (1013/15W) continues to move slowly northward over the South China Sea... approach Dongsha Dao and Guangdong...
MEGI has maintained its strength over the past 6 hours. MEGI's organization has slightly improved. The system has become more symmetric. Convection has built over the northeastern quadrant, making the "eyewall" complete. Microwave products suggest that MEGI has a big irregular eye.
Due to the presence of excellent upper level outflow, MEGI is forecast to intensify in the coming 12 to 24 hours. MEGI may regain Super Typhoon strength. About 24 hours later, stronger shear and land interaction should start to weaken the system.
A ridge has developed to the southeast of MEGI, as JGSM and NHM predicted. As a result, MEGI has gained a little longitude over the past 12 hours. The major ridge to the east of MEGI is expected to push MEGI to the north in the coming 24 hours.
Around 36 hours later, the sub-tropical ridge may strengthen and drive MEGI to the northwest into southern China. Landfall on eastern Guangdong or southern Fujian can be expected on Saturday.
Numerical models generally agree on a track towards Shantou, however the time of landfall is uncertain. GFS and CMC are among the eastern cluster which put MEGI over the Taiwan Strait or even Taiwan Island. It is funny to note that UKM, JGSM and TEPS predict a southwestward movement early next week, possibly due to the arrival of northeast monsoon.
Our latest forecast track is based on the consensus of ECMWF, NHM and JGSM results, with emphasis on the JGSM solution. MEGI will continue to approach eastern Guangdong. We will continue to monitor its development.
===== Position and strength at 03:00 UTC / 11:00 HKT =====
Position at 19.6N 117.5E (458 km SE of Hong Kong; 143 km SE of Dongsha Dao 東沙島, Taiwan), based on IR imageries,
Maximum sustained winds near centre 175 km/h gusting 250 km/h (95G135KT),
Minimum SLP 940 hPa,
T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS (21/0230Z), OW eye surrounded by LG ring. PT 6.0. DBO MET.